Aircraft Buying Quick Tip #3 – Don’t assume that all ADs were complied with because the last annual said they were.

Posted on by

Not every mechanic knows every make and model well, and not every mechanic is as diligent in their research or has as robust of software to check all ADs on all components of the aircraft. Some of these ADs can be very costly if they have been missed and a new buyer may find themselves with a surprisingly big bill, or worse, an unairworthy aircraft after they purchase if they don’t check all of these. Just having an annual signed off isn’t good enough.

In a recent case, a friend of mine was looking at a plane and I made a couple calls to help get some history on the aircraft. Talking with another maintenance shop nearby, they said they had never seen the airplane, but that if we started looking through the logbooks and found that “Fred” had done the annuals, that we needed to look very closely. Apparently “Fred” had a reputation for pencil whipped annuals and a lack of research on ADs. The advice was well taken, and in fact, “Fred” had done the last few annuals. A pre-buy inspection by a mechanic we sent down to look at the aircraft found multiple ADs not complied with, a cracked wing rib, and multiple other things that were pretty concerning. But it had been signed off for an annual within the last month.

Not every mechanic is as diligent, as capable, or as caring. Do the homework and take the time or walk away if there are questions.

Want to learn more from practical experience
about buying your first, next, or additional aircraft?

Check out the new book from ASA, by me, Jason Blair,
An Aviators Guide to Buying an Aircraft by clicking
the book cover to the right or by clicking here.

 

Tracking FAA Knowledge Test Data – Updated for 2019 Data Set…Most Testing on Upward Trend

Posted on by

Tracking FAA testing volume is one way to help determine what our flow of pilots looks like and what it might look like in the upcoming years. Two major pieces of this include the practical and knowledge tests. While the 2019 airman practical testing data hasn’t been made public yet, the knowledge testing data has come out and can be tracked in comparison with previous years. If we look at the volume of tests in relation to some of the previous years I have been tracking, the table looks like this with the 2019 data included.

One thing that becomes apparent, is that the overall testing numbers have been increasing and it shows when we graph all of these tests. While we still see the spike in ATP knowledge tests I have discussed in previous posts, we see a general upward testing volume trend in all of the tests given for the majority of the last decade.

The trend correlates closely with industry trends in pilot shortages, and with those shortages, public awareness and marketing to attract new future pilots to the career path.

An interesting data point that I focused on with this was an increasing trend in the volume of flight instructor knowledge tests. It is somewhat anecdotal, but I am noticing this trend goes up as the active hiring of CFIs has become faster and as other career options for building the requisite flight time experience to be hiring by an airline have become more scarce. Our industry is strongly reliant on future pilots spending some time as flight instructors as the primary method of building enough “time” to meet ATP pilot experience minimums. As our regulations changed and increased hours of service for eligibility, we see a correlative trend upwards in CFI Knowledge test volumes. As the tenure of CFIs at flight training providers has gotten shorter with active hiring by airlines of those qualified CFIs for ATP positions, the turnover of CFIs has become increased at most flight training operations. The speed of this turnover requires more CFIs, and more CFIs take tests to get those jobs that then leed to the next career job, at an airline. The trend in knowledge testing seems to show this in a data form.

The most critical test that may allow us to best ascertain trends toward service in airline careers is that for an ATP (Airline Transport Pilot) knowledge test. Changes in eligibility for this test were implemented between 2013 and 2015 that resulted in a significant drop in the number of people each year who were eligible for taking the ATP knowledge test. Since that crash in testing numbers in 2015, we have seen a trend upward and as of 2019, the testing volume is getting closer again to what it was before those regulations changes. This may be an indicator that the ability to certify ATP pilots may again be reaching a point where it is more likely to keep up with the active hiring needs of airlines, most specifically, regional airlines who hire the greatest number of newly certificated ATP pilots.

Data doesn’t allow us to gauge all facets of our pilot supply and production pipeline, but it certainly gives us some data points with which we can track trends. The FAA Knowledge test statistics are a part of this. As soon as I get the update 2019 pilot practical testing numbers, I will compile some data and put out a follow up post with what trends we can see since the 2018 data last came out in the spring of 2019.

Aircraft Buying Quick Tip #2 – Don’t trust a clean oil filter.

Posted on by

While helping another client this past year, I noticed that the aircraft looked like it had recently had an oil change when we dumped the filter. I got curious, asked that it be run for a while, noted the nervousness of the broker at the request, and had an independent mechanic check the filter. We couldn’t make out part numbers, but the parts in the filter were visible to the naked eye. We went looking for a different aircraft.

In a hot market, some brokers, the ones that give the good ones a bad name, do even more unscrupulous things. We suspected in this case that the broker had done the oil change to hide a potentially sub-par engine.

I am not going to tell you that checking the oil in the oil filter will guarantee that an engine is good, but I am pretty certain that if your mechanic dumps the oil filter and it makes clinky sounds in the oil pan or you can read any part numbers on the chunks that come out you probably are not looking at an engine that is going to run much longer.

If other potential buyers have looked at the aircraft already, the oil filter may have already been dumped and the chance to see if there are problems being indicated by things in the oil filter will be missed. Unless you run it for a while.

A good start is to run the aircraft for a few hours, flying it if possible, running it on the ground if necessary (if it isn’t insured, a qualified pilot isn’t available, the weather is lousy, or any other reasons the broker may tell you it can’t be flow) and then dump the oil filter and check it.

Want to learn more from practical experience
about buying your first, next, or additional aircraft?

Check out the new book from ASA, by me, Jason Blair,
An Aviators Guide to Buying an Aircraft by clicking
the book cover to the right or by clicking here.

Aircraft Buying Quick Tip #1 – Don’t automatically let the shop the broker recommends do the pre-buy inspection.

Posted on by

I always recommend that buyers engage a non-interested party to conduct a pre-buy. Remember, the broker is looking out for the best interest of the seller, not the buyer.

This could mean bringing your mechanic with you when you look at a new plane, contracting another shop, or having the aircraft flown to a third party. Some aircraft have manufacturer supported service centers than can be utilized that might even be more familiar with the aircraft and provide a better inspection based on their knowledge of the specific make and model. In the past year I have worked with buyers of both Cirrus and Beechcraft aircraft and had them fly potential aircraft hours away from where they were located to quality service centers to get the best inspections. In both cases, the process resulted in purchases, but also in finding items of concern that the buyers with whom I was working were able to negotiate reductions in the sale price and address prior to their taking ownership of the aircraft.

A thing to keep in mind is that mechanics can be fiercely territorial and every mechanic I have ever met has been better than any other mechanic I have ever met. How do I know this? They have told me so.

Every mechanic is probably going to find something “that the last mechanic” did wrong. Take this with a grain of salt. We all like to think we are the best pilots or mechanics out there. To some degree it is professional pride. A good mechanic will tell you if they are not the right one for the job.

Do a little homework on a mechanic or shop you are going to use to do a pre-buy inspection. Know their strengths and weaknesses. If they are honest with you, that is a very good first step. Don’t pick the shop across the field that the last mechanic hates. As small as the aviation community is, remember that there may be personal histories between mechanics or shops in the area that could influence the outcome of a pre-buy inspection. Make sure you are getting a good inspection, not a biased one. To remedy this, I many times find someone from a little ways away or bring someone in to do the inspection. It may mean paying a little to move the aircraft or paying a mechanic to travel to the aircraft and renting some hangar space for a day. But it will always be better than having personal politics affect the decision about the quality of the aircraft you are considering.

Want to learn more from practical experience
about buying your first, next, or additional aircraft?

Check out the new book from ASA, by me, Jason Blair,
An Aviators Guide to Buying an Aircraft by clicking
the book cover to the right or by clicking here.