Tracking multi-engine airplane ATP certificate issuances each year is one metric by which we can track how many people are likely transitioning into airline and professional pilot career track flying. In 2025, we saw a dip in those issuances when compared with the recent high volume years between 2022 through 2024. Many thought this meant that airline hiring was on a significant downturn that would last. What we are seeing so far in 2026 seems to counteract that potential assumption.

When we look at the year-to-date month-by-month ATP AMEL certificate issuances halfway through the year, the end of June 2026, we see that compared to last year, we are just over 21% up on the number of certificates issued.

The month-by-month track in this chart compares the number issued at this point (June 30) for each of the past 10 years.

You can see that while 2025 dipped, we are returning back to high volume as we saw in the past few years.

Looking at this from a larger perspective, we can see the track year-to-date on the yearly scale for each of the past 10 years.

The current year, 2026 is tracking right along the volume lines that we saw in heavy airline hiring and ATP certification years in 2022, 2023, and 2024, in the post COVID hiring boom.

I relate this to hiring trends directly because most of the ATP certificates that are being issued are as pilots transition into regional airline training pipelines, complete their ATP-CTP training courses, and then transition through type ratings and their ATP certification. This seems to be an indicator of consistent hiring so far in 2026.

There are also indications that this will continue at many regional airlines through 2026, as major airlines (even in the climate where the job market is experiencing some disruptions from mergers processes and the elimination of Spirit Airlines as a pilot employer) continue active hiring.

Bringing this together, we might also refer to some data from the Future & Active Pilots Alliance (FAPA) at FAPA.aero (specifically, https://www.fapa.aero/pilot-hiring-history).

Through the end of May 2026, not quite halfway through the year, we see that the selected grouping of “major” airlines has hired 3016 pilots so far. This is just over 66% of the total hiring of last year, at 41% of the way through the year. Major airlines are hiring more than they did at this point in the year compared to 2025 and compared to 2024. It certainly looks like airline hiring is going to be at a higher level than it has been in the last two years.

The ramifications of this flow downstream to regional airlines.

As major airlines hire, they frequently hire pilots from regional airlines. The regionals will then need to hire and train new ATPs for those jobs in the process. And we see that represented in the uptick in ATP AMEL certificate issuances.

Logic from this trend leads me to believe it will then flow down to the flight instructor community, seeing CFIs who meet ATP or Restricted-ATP certificate minimums begin to be actively hired by regional airlines to back-fill their losses to major airlines and seeing active class-dates being offered over the upcoming months. This likely will result in a significant percentage of the currently employed CFI market transitioning to the next level jobs and opening of CFI positions for those who have completed CFI certifications in the recent months to move into those positions.

You can see the track of ATP certificate issuance trending up this year compared to the last two years, tracking closely to the higher volume years post-COVID.

I will continue to track this date through the rest of the year. Hopefully, those of you reading this find it as interesting as I do as we evaluate the certification trends in our industry!

Below is the data table that shows the ATP AMEL certificate issuance month-by-month through June of 2026, going back to 2026.

*2026 Data year-to-date through June 2026.

The next chart below is the selected major airline hiring numbers for recent years, with the 2026 numbers only being through the end of May in this data at this point.

*2026 Data year-to-date through May 2026.