Some Reasons the Pilot Shortage May Be Worse Because of COVID-19

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COVID-19 has put a major hiccup into our aviation system. Professional pilots are not flying and training providers are shut down and their customers have had to stop training. This is going to make the pilot shortage we have seen worse over the next couple years.

Some will say that there will be a bunch of furloughed pilots who will fill the needs when we get back up and running. On the surface, this may appear to be something that will stem the pilot shortage, but in fact, there are systemic factors that may actually exacerbate the pilot shortage when we come out of our shutdown.

Many pilots will not return to service.

In any major industry downturn that has historically seen pilots get furloughed, a certain percentage of these pilots do not return to working as airline pilots when, or if, they are called back. There are many factors that lead to this from an inability to wait out the “callback” for financial reasons, to career changing options, and many more. But this time there is a major piece that is going to affect this. Early retirement options.

Most of the major airlines are offering pilots who are above the age of 62 early retirement packages whereas they will pay out a described minimum set of hours monthly until that pilot reaches the mandatory retirement age of 65.

This makes financial sense for the airlines. It puts their most expensive (high seniority) pilots on lower hours and reduces the overall cost to the airline over those years while they can back fill those vacancies with pilots who are lower on the seniority list cost less to the airline. Continue reading →

Aircraft Buying Quick Tip #4 – Don’t buy until clear title can be proven.

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The broker or even the last owner may have no idea if there are any title liens on an aircraft. In many cases I have seen aircraft title searches turn up old liens that were either incorrectly or never cleared by a lending institution well in the past. In some cases the bank that held a loan and a lien on an aircraft may no longer be in business or may have been bought out by one or multiple banks over time. This can make getting a clear title to an aircraft challenging. It is less of a concern for completing a deal if a buyer is paying cash for it, but in that case it also won’t clear the previous title. The FAA won’t stop the sale of an aircraft because there is a historic lean that hasn’t been cleared, and a closed bank from 1972 isn’t going to come after you as the new buyer to pay off someone else’s incorrectly cleared loan, but it can hinder your ability to finance the aircraft or sell to a future buyer who might want to do the same. Many title companies work with aircraft records and can help you ferret out any old title liens. Clear this up prior to the purchase or be willing to do it after the purchase to avoid paperwork hurdles.

While these are some important considerations, there can be many reasons to walk away from aircraft. Don’t be afraid to do that during a buying process. You may be willing to accept added costs and take the risk if it really is the airplane you want, but take those risk only with full knowledge of for what you are signing up.

Want to learn more from practical experience
about buying your first, next, or additional aircraft?

Check out the new book from ASA, by me, Jason Blair,
An Aviators Guide to Buying an Aircraft by clicking
the book cover to the right or by clicking here.

Aircraft Buying Quick Tip #3 – Don’t assume that all ADs were complied with because the last annual said they were.

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Not every mechanic knows every make and model well, and not every mechanic is as diligent in their research or has as robust of software to check all ADs on all components of the aircraft. Some of these ADs can be very costly if they have been missed and a new buyer may find themselves with a surprisingly big bill, or worse, an unairworthy aircraft after they purchase if they don’t check all of these. Just having an annual signed off isn’t good enough.

In a recent case, a friend of mine was looking at a plane and I made a couple calls to help get some history on the aircraft. Talking with another maintenance shop nearby, they said they had never seen the airplane, but that if we started looking through the logbooks and found that “Fred” had done the annuals, that we needed to look very closely. Apparently “Fred” had a reputation for pencil whipped annuals and a lack of research on ADs. The advice was well taken, and in fact, “Fred” had done the last few annuals. A pre-buy inspection by a mechanic we sent down to look at the aircraft found multiple ADs not complied with, a cracked wing rib, and multiple other things that were pretty concerning. But it had been signed off for an annual within the last month.

Not every mechanic is as diligent, as capable, or as caring. Do the homework and take the time or walk away if there are questions.

Want to learn more from practical experience
about buying your first, next, or additional aircraft?

Check out the new book from ASA, by me, Jason Blair,
An Aviators Guide to Buying an Aircraft by clicking
the book cover to the right or by clicking here.

 

Tracking FAA Knowledge Test Data – Updated for 2019 Data Set…Most Testing on Upward Trend

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Tracking FAA testing volume is one way to help determine what our flow of pilots looks like and what it might look like in the upcoming years. Two major pieces of this include the practical and knowledge tests. While the 2019 airman practical testing data hasn’t been made public yet, the knowledge testing data has come out and can be tracked in comparison with previous years. If we look at the volume of tests in relation to some of the previous years I have been tracking, the table looks like this with the 2019 data included.

One thing that becomes apparent, is that the overall testing numbers have been increasing and it shows when we graph all of these tests. While we still see the spike in ATP knowledge tests I have discussed in previous posts, we see a general upward testing volume trend in all of the tests given for the majority of the last decade.

The trend correlates closely with industry trends in pilot shortages, and with those shortages, public awareness and marketing to attract new future pilots to the career path.

An interesting data point that I focused on with this was an increasing trend in the volume of flight instructor knowledge tests. It is somewhat anecdotal, but I am noticing this trend goes up as the active hiring of CFIs has become faster and as other career options for building the requisite flight time experience to be hiring by an airline have become more scarce. Our industry is strongly reliant on future pilots spending some time as flight instructors as the primary method of building enough “time” to meet ATP pilot experience minimums. As our regulations changed and increased hours of service for eligibility, we see a correlative trend upwards in CFI Knowledge test volumes. As the tenure of CFIs at flight training providers has gotten shorter with active hiring by airlines of those qualified CFIs for ATP positions, the turnover of CFIs has become increased at most flight training operations. The speed of this turnover requires more CFIs, and more CFIs take tests to get those jobs that then leed to the next career job, at an airline. The trend in knowledge testing seems to show this in a data form.

The most critical test that may allow us to best ascertain trends toward service in airline careers is that for an ATP (Airline Transport Pilot) knowledge test. Changes in eligibility for this test were implemented between 2013 and 2015 that resulted in a significant drop in the number of people each year who were eligible for taking the ATP knowledge test. Since that crash in testing numbers in 2015, we have seen a trend upward and as of 2019, the testing volume is getting closer again to what it was before those regulations changes. This may be an indicator that the ability to certify ATP pilots may again be reaching a point where it is more likely to keep up with the active hiring needs of airlines, most specifically, regional airlines who hire the greatest number of newly certificated ATP pilots.

Data doesn’t allow us to gauge all facets of our pilot supply and production pipeline, but it certainly gives us some data points with which we can track trends. The FAA Knowledge test statistics are a part of this. As soon as I get the update 2019 pilot practical testing numbers, I will compile some data and put out a follow up post with what trends we can see since the 2018 data last came out in the spring of 2019.