The number of ATP certificates issued each year directly correlates to how many pilots are entering into employment in 121 carrier operations. This is especially true since the changes that took place after the regulatory changes that required pilots to be ATP certificated (or R-ATP) to fly in these operations were made over a decade ago.
Pilots who become ATP certificated, for the most part, do so as they transition through training at airlines and complete their type-ratings. If we look at the data from 1990-2025 with regard to ATP certificates issued, we closely track many of the ups and downs in airline hiring.
Two years ago, in 2023, we saw a peak certification year with 11218 pilots being issued multi-engine ATP certificates. This was in the peak of heavy hiring by airlines as they recovered from COVID effects (heavy early retirements and then resurgence of air travel).
Since that peak, the next two years, 2024 and 2025, have seen some reductions in the number of ATP certificates issued and hiring at many airlines. But this isn’t a return to low numbers that were seen in periods such as after 9/11 or during the mid-2000s recession. We are still certificating, and hiring more pilots at airlines than we have done at many points in history.
There has been some doom and gloom from those finishing the training pipeline over the last year about the “reduced hiring crash” that they perceive is happening, but the reality is that we are just returning to a more structured, more normalized hiring process than we have been at the last couple of years.
The chart to the right gives us the data behind the chart and can show you the raw numbers of certificates issued and ATP knowledge tests completed in the specific years.
If we look at some data from FAPA (Future & Active Pilots Alliance – https://www.fapa.aero/pilot-hiring-history) for a few select airlines over the past 10 years, we can see the peak in the hiring boom and the return to normalization.
I encourage anyone thinking that hiring is not happening to give a look at the data they present on a month-by-month basis. Even as recently as today, I gave it a look at it is easy to see that airlines are still hiring.
The data in this chart is just the airlines listed in the table above, mostly major airlines. As they hire, they many times do so from regional airlines. The logical implication is that as the regional airlines lose pilots to the majors, they will need to backfill and upgrade pilots, and hire new first officers, many of them will be current CFIs who meet experience minimums.
The next chart shows us general tracking of ATP knowldge test and ATP certificats issued from 2002 through 2025.
ATP Practical Test Rates
As one would hope, the pass rates on ATP practical tests generally trend higher than lower-level certificates. You can see that in the next chart, and that it has been increasing as a general trend over the past nearly-twenty years.
Is this a perfect measure of the quality of trainnig people are receiving to accomplish their ATP certificates? No, it really isn’t that either.
We don’t know if airlines have increased their training course footprints and if the pass rate is because of more training. Some have indicated that this has been the case at some airlines; to get people through training with less people washing out. Some have even indicated that these training footprints have been expanded as a result of applicants coming in when hired with weaker base skills than were historically present. I don’t have data to empircally back that up, but if anyone does, it would be very interesting to see and discuss.
I do find it interesting that we have seen a general increase in pass rates since the ATP-CTP course became a mandatory part of the training pathway to ATP certification. Is there a causal relationship? I can’t show that with the data I have, but there is at least some level of correlation in those time periods.
Fundamentally, someone at the point of pursuing ATP certification is at a point where they have likely been acting in some professional pilot capacity already, either as a CFI or in other jobs, and they have already passed through some of the checkpoints along the way in the career path. The certification events for private, instrument, commercial, and other certification requirements. They have been filtered by a system that drives many of the weakest candidates out by that point. We should expect a high pass rate for this certification level.
ATP Pilot Population Context
The words “pilot shortage” get thrown around the industry a lot. There is one, or there isn’t one. And what the definition of that varies. I can’t tell you if everyone agrees if there is one right now, or will be one soon, but what I can tell you is a little bit more data about some of the demographics of our ATP pilot population.
Let’s start with the total number of ATP certificate holders that we ended with in 2025.
Our total number of ATP certificate holders keeps going up. So does the number of them who are older.
When we look at the percentage of our ATP pilot population that falls into specific age groups, we see that the percentage of ATPs who are over the age of 64 keeps going up. It is now about 18% of our population. These are pilots that (unless an age increase is given) are no longer eligible to fly in airline operations. Some still continue to fly for charter or corporate operations, or do some instruction, but they are not typically serving in the airline operations flying “the line.”
You can see from the following chart the bandings of pilots in certain age bands. I would draw attention to the fact that over 40% of our ATP pilot certificate holders are between the ages of 50-65, and thus, within 10-15 years of reaching mandatory retirement age. So we need to think about how we will be managing the continued flow of retiring pilots over the next decade. (If you are a real dork like me, feel free to see the tabular data that generated this chart at the bottom of this post.)
Even with the large percentage of ATP certificate pilot holders that are, umm, well, more senior. We are starting to see the average age of our ATP certificate holders turn back downward. This is a result of very heavy ATP pilot certification over the past few years, again after the COVID years, and those individuals are typically younger. Their entry in droves is beginning to outweigh, or at least balance, the higher age sections of our ATP pilot pool. You can see this from the following chart:
Our younger ATP pilot certificate holders are at points where they will be flowing up and through the airline operations realms, and we will likely be filling in even more younger ATPs in active hiring years coming up. This is certainly supported by the continued high numbers of private pilot, instrument rating, and commercial pilot certification data points. We keep pushing big numbers of trained pilots through the initial states who will then be able to transition into ATP certification.
Here is the chart that shows where all this fun data came from!
