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For the first time since 1999, we experienced a year-to-year overall decrease in the number of holders of FAA Certificated Flight Instructor (CFI) certificates. For a long time, the average age of the holder of  CFI certificate was continuing to climb in our U.S. aviation databases. This spiked, and began to turn in a more downward direction in 2017. This also appears it may be a peak point in our CFI certificates held point for the moment.

With the 2023 data, we see that we decreased from 125,075 CFI certificated holders in 2023 to 122577 at the end of 2023. This represents a small, 1.9% decrease, but it is also happening when we are at the same time increasing the number of CFI certificates issued in each year.

We can see from the graph below that we have been increasing the number of CFI certificates issued yearly in the recent past, even surpassing high points of issuance back in the early 1990s.

If we look at more detail, we can find that in 2023 we increased our CFI issuance numbers to 11,337 from what we had in 2022, 8364. This was an increase in issuance numbers of over 35%. In spite of this, we saw that overall small drop in overall numbers of CFI certificates held.

I have a theory here, and it is a simple one. We have CFIs who are simply aging out of the system. Since the CFI certificate (currently) requires the individual to renew the certificate every two years to keep it active, at some point people who are of retirement age eventually stop doing this. This seems to match with our trending up of overall CFI age for many years and now a relatively significant turn being experienced in the past few years of average CFI age.

The largest numbers of CFI certificate issuances are to younger pilots who are entering the career path, utilizing the CFI job to gain experience to make them employable for minimum experience requirements. As we certificate more of these younger CFIs each year, and as the older CFIs retire and no longer keep their certificates active, I expect that this turn in average age will continue. It also seems to indicate that we may see a continued dropoff of total CFI certificate holder numbers that will eventually stabilize at some point at a lower number.

Our baby boomer generation of pilots is aging, and retiring. As this happens, we can see some of the effects tracking in our various pilot population data points. I fully expect us to continue to see a reduction in overall CFI certificate holder numbers in upcoming years as a result.

One might ask, however, if this means we are less able to produce pilot certification due to a lower number of CFIs in our system. On the surface, this might seem a logical assumption, but it doesn’t really track like that.

The youngest of our CFI cadre still tend to provide the bulk of the training for primary certification. Most of our older CFI certificate holders are employed in other professional aviation functions, such as a corporate or airline pilot, and keep their certificates from expiring but are not actively using it on a regular basis for primary training efforts. There are exceptions to this who are engaged with the flight training industry and might be even serving as chiefs in training programs or engaged on other training sectors, but they do not comprise the majority.

In fact, each year there is another interesting data point that helps us understand the activity of our CFI cadre. This is the data point that shows how many CFIs have endorsed at least one, and I mean just one, applicant for a practical test within the year. You can see from the chart here that this is much smaller percentage of our CFI population than the overall total.

As our CFI total numbers go down, and our younger cadre of CFIs goes up, I do expect the percentage of CFIs who do endorse to increase, especially as we increase overall pilot certification efforts.

The bulk of certification training for practical test endorsement continues to be completed by under 20% of our CFI certificate holder core. Even smaller numbers of these CFIs sign off larger numbers of applicants each year (you can see some more detail on this at – How many did you sign off as a CFI in 2023? How do you compare?).

Our CFI population is one that is very transitory in terms of their highly active years. By most accounts, CFIs in heavy training volume operations are there 14-18 months over the past few years before flowing to employment in other professional pilotage positions. Should airline hiring rates decrease, this typically will extend their time service as a CFI. In either case, our more senior CFI certificate holders are not as active, are aging, and appear to be dropping out of our system at a higher rate than in recent years. Some upcoming regulatory changes expected in 2024 may change the reporting of these individuals with regard to their currency as a CFI, and this is something we will need to contextualize when the final rule is published, and its effects are seen.

At this time, it does, however, seem as though our ability to produce CFIs is one that is stable and/or growing and sufficient to keep training for other pilot certificates and ratings moving through our aviation training system.

The number of ATP certificates issued each year is something that helps us identify how many potential pilots are being qualified each year for service in airline operational environments. With active hiring over the past couple of years, the pressure to deliver ATP-certificated pilots has been strong.

Our industry has been delivering increasing numbers of ATP-certificated pilots over the past years, something that can be seen from the chart below.

Increasing ATP Certification Trends

While there was a spike in 2014-2016 in ATP knowledge test and certificate issuance when regulations changed, the overall trend has been largely similar through the last decade or so.

Until 2021.

Since then, we have seen continued increases in ATP knowledge test completion and certification. Much of this is completed through the process of airline hiring and onboarding, beginning with completion of the ATP CTP course and finally with their ATP certification that coincides with a type rating for an aircraft they will be operating.

As many have indicated that there is a pilot shortage, this trend of increased certification would seem to indicate an increased ability to serve demand, decreasing the pressure of a pilot shortage. The longer this trend continues, the more our industry should be able to meet all hiring needs, and potentially even be more selective in hiring in terms of quality versus just quantity of hiring.

Through 2023 we saw a trend of certification that was outpacing all recent years on a month-by-month basis

Will the trend continue?

This is a valid question as we enter the third month of 2024. Numerous airlines have reported slowing or even pausing of hiring at this time. It very much appears some fleet restructuring is happening that may change the mix of how many pilots are needed compared with passengers flown. Larger aircraft will take more passengers for fewer flights.

Secondarily, as airlines right-size their hiring, and cut back class sizes, this means we may see some dropoff in the flow of ATP certification. If the airlines slow hiring, especially those that are regional airlines that conduct much of the training and certification for initial ATP pilot certification, we may see the month-to-month trend begin to not pace as high as it has over the past two years. This is a trend that I will monitor in the upcoming months and share if I see any data of interest.

Aging ATP Pilot Population

Another interesting point that I think is worth looking at when it comes to our ATP pilot population is that it is aging.

Well, kind of.

From the chart below, we can see that from 2001 through 2021, the average age of an ATP certificate holder rose from just over 46 to a peak of over 51. In 2022, that average began to drop, and it did it again in 2023.

This is the average age of ALL  pilot certificate holders who have an ATP certificate.

As we certificate more per year, those begin to weight our average downward with younger pilots. But it also seems to be an indication that our ATP pilot population may be dying off also. This may sound a little crass, but its actually pretty simple demographics. Our baby boomer generation of pilots is aging out and dying off. With that, we will eventually reduce the number of ATP pilot certificate holder numbers due simply to age.

This is where some discussion also takes place in our industry about the age of ATP pilots and who may be allowed to fly in the airline operational environment.

The chart to the right here shows a snapshot of some of the demographics regarding the age of ATP pilot certificate holders at the end of 2023.

Fully 15% of those pilots are over the age of 64, which means they are subject to the mandatory retirement age of 65 for airline operations. While some discussion is taking place at the national level regarding proposals to extend the mandatory retirement age to 67, until such a time as that were to be made reality, we have at least 15% of our ATPs who are ineligible to provide service in airline operations.

Some will argue that those pilots may then move over to private or charter operational activities, but our industry has seen significant movement in those markets to limit pilots of more senior ages from service. Whether it becomes company policy that a pilot will not be employed after the age of 70, or insurance restrictions that mandate a pilot not be allowed to fly in an operation at a certain age, any attempt to gain further pilot service by just increasing age tolerances is likely to gain minimal positive benefit. Even if it does gain some, the gains are likely short lived.

I actually expect we will see the age of our ATP pilot population trend down from an averaging calculation over the next few years as our older pilots pass along and our higher certification numbers of younger pilots offset the larger populations of senior pilots we have had in our system over the past decade or two.